DRAM Status Report 3Q11

By Lane Mason | September 22, 2011

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Below is a table showing the status of various DRAM makers’ technology and fab status about the end of the current month, and end of 3Q11. The majors not only have the more advanced processes running in their fabs, and are the developers of almost all new DRAM technology, but virtually own the specialty DRAM business, in its various forms, which benefits them with higher, more stable, and more defensible margins (though nothing like it was even 2 quarters ago). They also have more scale and less debt, too.

		DRAM Market Snapshot, 09/2011

		Previous	New	Share 3QE
	K ws/mo	Prcs Node	Prcs Node	New node	Notes:
Samsung	450	45nm	35nm	45%	Korea, Austin TX
Hynix	300	44m	38nm	20%	all Korea
Micron	160	50nm	42nm	90%	Manassas, TECH, KTI (Japan)
Elpida	130	40, 45nm	25, 35nm	35%	Hiroshima Fab
SubTtl	1040

Taiwan DRAM makers:
Rexchip	80	40nm	30nm	50%	60% Elpida; 40% Pchp
Inotera	130	50nm	42nm	90%	30% MU, 30% Nanya, 40% float
ProMOS	40		45nm	50%	Elpida Technology
Powerchip	130		45nm	65%	ElpidaTechnology
Nanya	60	50nm	42nm	80%	MU Technology partner
Winbond	40		46nm	35%	Indy
SubTtl	480
Total	1520

	Rank in sales of Specialty DRAMs (non-PC DRAMs)
	Server	Graphics	LP/Mobile	Other
Samsung	2	1	1	1
Hynix	3	2	3	4
Micron	1	-	4	2
Elpida	3	-	2	3

"Other" is XDR, SDRAM/DDR1, PSRAM, 'Consumer DRAM', specialty packaged DRAM
	(= 2H, 4H, LR DIMM, FB DIMM, VLP DIMM)
Virtually all DRAM cells are 6F2 these days; some 4F2 designs have been shown in prototypes;
	moving 6F2 to 4F2 gets you another 15-20% smaller die.
Rules of thumb for process node to get optimal ~700-800 d/300mm wafer:
	90nm = 512M; 70nm = 1Gb; 50nm = 2Gb; 35nm = 4Gb
Inotera shares its output 50-50 between Micron and Nanya;
	Process roadmap is MU, and all 3 will launch 3xnm by YE2011
Elpida roadmap flagship product is 25nm 6F2, but still has
	30, 35, 40, 5Xnm products in partner fabs; also demo 4F2

DRAM prices are at their lowest point for the year, though there are some indications that they are starting to stabilize. In any case, the seasonality of DRAM pricing and demand today is well below the ordinary summer sales uplift.

Specialty DRAMs have been the gross margin salvation for the majors for the past year, but are also increasingly competitive these days, and some of Taiwan manufacturers are starting to show up in the market. All Specialty DRAMs have ‘market tenacity’, and the supplier, once designed in, cannot be displaced merely on a lower price, as is the case in the PC DRAM world. In its most generous definition, Specialty DRAMs combine to make up about 25-30% of total DRAM GB shipped…but a much high fraction of sales dollars.

Graphics has been dominated by Samsung and Hynix for a while, though #3 Qimonda (since departed) was technically very good, and on its deathbed, licensed their technology to Elpida and Winbond, but nothing much has come of it.

The Mobile Wave has benefitted the original incumbents, and this market is served today by PSRAM, LP DRAM (SDRAM-based), Mobile DDR1 and emerging Mobile DDR2. Mobile DRAM is spreading outside just phones, though phones still make up 70-80% of Mobile/LP DRAM GB shipped.

“Server”, driven by the cloud. is the New Game in DRAM town, and will pay premium prices for ‘dense and lower power DIMMs’, using 1.35V DDR3; this means highest density DRAMs (today 4Gb), multichip 2H or 4H stacks per DIMM site, maybe TSV capability, and both the old and newer high-loading DIMM solutions, FB DIMMs and LR DIMMs, or VLP DIMMs. Packaging skills are a major benefit for suppliers who are the leading Server DRAM suppliers.

About 60-80K wafers/month of production capacity appear to be mothballed, all in Taiwan, though some seems (according to some reports) to be building die banks to reappear later ‘when prices have been restored’. On the other hand, Micron is convinced that the DRAM wafer capacity is now at an historic peak, and GB sales growth hereafter will all come from process shrinks: No new DRAM capacity will EVER be needed.

Given the uncertain future of the PC market, and the 8-10x cost/GB advantage of NAND flash, plus new mobile NAND-enabled platforms like smart phones and tablets, we would have to agree that “DRAMs are pretty much history’, though still a $20B+ market this year.

Specialty DRAMs combine to

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Specialty DRAMs combine to make Zoloft dosage up about 25-30% of total DRAM GB shipped…but a much high fraction of sales dollars.Great information.

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